My friend, Geoff Sjostrom, (not to be confused with our “own” Geoff) is a retired LEO, having served a career in law enforcement in a city just across the western city limits of Chicago, IL. He’s given a lot of thought about the events in Newtown, CT, Aurora, CO and Arizona. He’s given me permission to republish his essay that appeared the other day here. I’ll let his own thoughts speak for themselves:
What Could Have Prevented the Newtown Massacre?
Different people see the question through different lenses, based on their political views and their differing beliefs in how people’s behavior may best be regulated. Some say that Newtown is a clear sign that stricter gun control is necessary to keep semiautomatic weapons with high magazine capacities out of the hands of the madmen who seek to murder us in large numbers. Others say that the mental health system should be used aggressively to identify those who are likely to commit mass murder and prevent them from acting on their impulses.
So, how can we prevent future tragedies like Newtown?
To answer that question, we first need to understand the people that commit mass murder. Law enforcement calls them “spree killers”, an oddly festive name for these murderous monsters. The FBI defines a spree killing as “two or more murders committed by an offender or offenders, without a cooling-off period”.
Spree killers do not wake up in a rage one morning and decide to murder a lot of people with whatever weapons are available to them at the time. Although rage may motivate them, they generally plan their rampages for days, weeks, months, or even years before executing their plans. They spend that time carefully choosing their target and acquiring the weapons, ammunition, and other equipment (bombs, body armor, disguises) necessary for accomplishing their goals.
So, will strict gun control laws keep weapons out of the hands of spree killers?
Take a look at the case of Anders Breivik. On July 22, 2011, Breivik set off a car bomb in Oslo, Norway, killing eight people. Later that day he went to a youth camp on Utøya Island and, wearing a police uniform, killed 69 people with a semiautomatic pistol and a semiautomatic rifle.
Breivik says he planned his rampage for nine years. During that time he sought the weapons he needed both legally and illegally, ultimately acquiring his guns legally. He had to acquire the police uniform, of course. And he found the perfect site for killing as many people as possible: An island. His victims couldn’t get away.
Norway has gun laws that are as strict as any American gun control advocate could wish for, but that didn’t prevent Anders Breivik from legally obtaining the guns he wanted. Spree killers will spend all the time necessary and all the money they have to acquire weapons, ammunition, and high capacity magazines, legally or illegally.
What about outlawing the ownership of such guns completely? Some people would turn them in, but most guns would just be driven underground, like alcohol during Prohibition. Guns and high capacity magazines would become immeasurably more valuable to their owners.
Furthermore, guns are extremely durable. With sparing use and proper care, they can continue to operate for centuries. If we were to stop the manufacture and importation of semiautomatic rifles and pistols today, it would be fifty years before the number of those weapons in this country began to decline significantly.
So, let’s turn to another possibility: Stepping up the monitoring of the population so that the dangerous mentally ill can be identified before they commit their mass murders.
Anders Breivik is again an illustrative case. Although his political views were extreme, he was able to simulate sanity long enough to join a gun club (which allowed him to obtain the pistol) and obtain a hunting license (which allowed him to purchase the rifle).
In this country, Dylan Klebold and Eric Harris, the Columbine High School killers, are also illustrative. They lived at home with their parents in a prosperous suburban area in Colorado. Because they were minors, they were forced to acquire their weapons illegally. The boys had minor brushes with the law but nothing that would have indicated that they were planning an act of extreme violence. Klebold and Harris were able to plan the attacks over the period of a year without being detected.
Think back over the reporting on the Newtown tragedy: In all the discussions, did you hear any reputable psychology professional claim that he could have predicted Adam Lanza’s rampage? You didn’t, because they can’t.
There is no shortage of frustrated young men ranting to their friends, in person and on the internet, about their violent plans. Sometimes those outbursts, however disturbing, are merely jokes. Other times the violent impulse is real. But only an infinitesimal number of them attempt to act out their murderous fantasies. And no one knows which tiny few are the ones who will act on their impulses.
What about quicker responses by the police?
The rampage of a spree killer may be carefully planned over a long period of time, but it is frequently over in minutes. Police may be able to interrupt a murder spree once it has started, but they cannot respond quickly enough to prevent a substantial loss of life.
So, what’s to be done? The supply of semiautomatic weapons in this country is already beyond control, and no one can identify spree killers before they act. What should we do to prevent spree killings at schools? Let’s analyze the pattern. The following is the number of spree killing events at schools in the U.S., from 1990 through 2012 (from Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/School_shootings_in_the_United_States#List_of_notable_U.S._school_attacks):
|
Events |
Fatalities |
||
| 1990 |
None |
||
| 1991 |
1 |
6 |
|
| 1992 |
2 |
6 |
|
| 1993 |
1 |
2 |
|
| 1994 |
None |
||
| 1995 |
2 |
4 |
|
| 1996 |
2 |
6 |
|
| 1997 |
3 |
7 |
|
| 1998 |
2 |
7 |
|
| 1999 |
1 |
15 |
Columbine |
| 2000 |
1 |
2 |
|
| 2001 |
1 |
2 |
|
| 2002 |
2 |
7 |
|
| 2003 |
2 |
4 |
|
| 2004 |
None |
||
| 2005 |
1 |
8 |
|
| 2006 |
3 |
10 |
|
| 2007 |
2 |
35 |
33 at Virginia Tech |
| 2008 |
3 |
11 |
|
| 2009 |
1 |
2 |
|
| 2010 |
2 |
5 |
|
| 2011 |
3 |
7 |
|
| 2012 |
3 |
37 |
27 at Newtown |
In many cases the offender committed suicide at the scene, and it’s not clear from the Wikipedia table whether the offenders are included among the fatalities. If they are, the actual number of spree shootings and fatalities from spree shootings may be considerably lower.
What does this tell us? Far from showing that school shooting sprees are common, the numbers show that these events are extremely rare. In the last 23 years there have never been more than three incidents in one year, and in 10 of those years there was either one incident, or none. And what about the rate of fatalities? In 18 out of 23 years the number of fatalities was eight or lower.
How does this compare to other risks in our lives?
According to the United States Weather Service, an average of 54 people are killed by lightning every year. How much time, effort, and money do parents devote to preventing their children from being struck by lightning? The fact is that an American is seven times more likely to be killed by lightning than to die in a school spree shooting.
So what more should we, as a society, do to prevent future school spree shootings? Nothing. These events are already so rare that there is no reason to believe that they can be substantially reduced in number by any action that would be tolerated by the American public.
And what should parents do to prevent their children from becoming the victim of a spree killer at school? Nothing. Yes, it may happen, just as your child may be killed by lightning on the way to or from school. But rather than worrying about mass murder, parents should concern themselves with the real risks to their children: Accidents of all kinds, which are by far and away the leading cause of death for children aged 5 to 14.
Unfortunately, none of this is any help to school and police administrators. The public will demand that they do something in response to the Newtown tragedy. These officials cannot just tell the public not to worry because such events are rare and unpreventable.
So what can be done to deal with the public demand for action?
There can be merit in doing things that make people feel safer even if they don’t actually increase safety. How? Because if people believe they are safe, they will go about their lives productively, not worrying about unlikely dangers.
For instance, if a rich school district wants to spend money on target hardening and as a result parents worry less about sending their kids to school, the taxpayers will have gotten value for their money even though that money might have been spent more productively elsewhere.
In less affluent areas the police should consult with the schools on emergency plans and give training to staff and students. This has the merit of being relatively inexpensive, diverting few resources that would be better used elsewhere.
But above all, to parents: Relax. Send your children to school, and don’t frighten them with advice on how to avoid being killed in school by a madman. At least not until you’ve taught them about the dangers of lightning.
Geoff Sjostrom is a graduate of Northwestern University and a retired sergeant from the Oak Park, Illinois, police department where he supervised the juvenile section for nine years.
© 2013 Geoff Sjostrom
The Lexicans 
A stark and astute observation, one with considerable merit. The article illustrates how much of our society has developed a “Chicken Little” response to tragedy; especially those of the Piers Morgan ilk (or ick. Take your pick).
I could see this becoming a State mandate implemented by each of the Governors, allowing each State to determine what is in their own best interests. Where Federal governance is involved, prohibitively expensive and ineffectual measures are the result.
Indeed, relax. Revert to common sense. Tell your children you love them, and help them work through the fear. Psychology teaches us that children’s minds are developing, their observations and responses are typically different from those of adults, and, as such, they need to be guided by adult wisdom and not the asshattery of a Chicken Little response.
Thanks for this, ComJam. I believe I’ll link back to it.
Really good post COMJAM. Thanks for putting this up.
Something that many people (not just liberals) don’t understand is that sometimes “stuff happens” (usually that comes in a stronger variant, if you catch my drift). It can’t be predicted, it can’t be prevented, it just happens.
But many people want someone (usually the government) to “do” something (anything!) so “it won’t happen again”. Well guess what? No matter what the government does, things like this happen and will happen again. But as Sgt Sjostrom indicates, these things are (thankfully) rare.
Many people want something, anything done to “protect us” when in reality it’s just to make them feel better. Most government security measures that the public can actually see are simply eyewash. They do nothing but raise your taxes.
And sometimes erode our rights as citizens.
Stuff like this happens because we live in a broken world. I don’t think the glorification of violence on TV, in movies and video games helps and I think such things desensitize our youth and the public at large.
This is the first thoughtful post about what should be done – one of my frequent Cyberspace haunts – besides the Lexicans – is chicagoboyz.net – among the posters is (to me) a pretty sharp individual – Dr Michael Kennedy – retired surgeon – and here is his take on the history of the “deinstutionalizing” of the (potentially) violently mentally ill
http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/34003.html
I was reminded of a couple of things in re: strict gun control and Europe – had a good friend in the Army – a civilian who ran the photo lab – proudly told me of the pistol he kept in a closet from his German Army days – then some 25 years later.
And far more recently someone reminded me with the fall of the Iron Curtain one can, with a bit of diligent searching and travel – get ak-47s – even hand grenades – for a price and bring them back to any EU country.
It seems too that Americans have over the years become less self-reliant and more expecting of someone ()usually the government) to “do something”.
Had this been going on 100 years ago most of the schools would have had armed teachers.
Beyond that I would agree that we should reevaluate our policy of treatment of the mentally ill…
The author is absolutely right – unlike “normal” murderers – there is no way one could predict this – I was thinking of the VA Tech shooter who bought his guns legally
The mindless chatter of the news media adds so much to the mix, and then the political machines kick in to utilize a tragedy for their own agenda and advantage. It’s sad. The author nailed it, there is essentially nothing to avert the evil in this world.
Did you know that more murders were committed with hammers and clubs in 2011 than rifles? Let’s outlaw hammers and clubs!
Eloquent and spot-on. I would however, clarify, the discussion about mental health issues. It’s not just about keeping guns away from those people with those issues…it’s about access to better mental health care for parents with children who exhibit all the signs of a problem that will only grow worse with age and lack of adequate care.
Parents have nowhere to turn these days; the institutions that were shut down in the 60s have left a generation+ without access to anything meaningful.
I don’t know what it would look like; certainly the institutions of the 60s can’t be brought back, they were so inhumane. But rather than fix them at the time, the era of political correctness was born and they were simply – closed. And along with them, over time, the facilities and professional help that are so desperately needed by families with mentally ill children.
Case in point: friends of ours have a severely autistic son; he tests at the very extreme end of the scale. There is nothing meaningful available to them, either thru partnership with their school system or thru the state. Private institutions are beyond their reach financially and a once per week psych visit just doesn’t cut it for a kid who believes that clothing – is optional.
So – they built a new house with an entire downstairs devoted to the care and nurturing of their child. Special sensory deprivation rooms, special – everything. This is the choice they had to make because basically there was no other choice available.
Kris, in most states, autism falls in the MR (mental retardation) funding stream, not the MH (mental health). And there is far more funding for MR, thousands of dollars for each one. So as difficult as it has been for your friends, it is thousands of times more difficult for those with an MH diagnosis, vs. an MR diagnosis. Good example, though. In every state, while there are services available for autism and other extreme-care/need diagnoses, they are often only available to people with very limited means. Our resources are not applied based on NEED, but on INCOME, which is doubly unfortunate.
It still makes me sit-back and ask WTF,O? When the first reaction to such an incident is to punish the innocent, in the name of “Doing Something!”
None of the other 150 million law-abiding gun-owners had anything to do with this but, let’s restrict their rights!
I posted the below over at the Facebook page so I’ll paste it here and then add a few more thoughts:
As well as agreeing on the spelling of our first names I absolutely agree on this conclusion of Geoff’s. I conducted similar studies and produced similar essays during my `professional years` and studied similar incidents in considerable depth, both during my undergrad years for my degree in Police Studies as well as being head of firearms training. The pattern is as familiar as it is rare, as Geoff Sjostrom states. To `immediately do nothing` would have been my advice to my chief officer on such occasions, but sadly politicians do not have the stomach for such decisions, their professional life being measured in years of single figures. The move towards short contract chief police officers in the UK, which is something very much in vogue at this time of austerity and public sector cuts, is something that will exacerbate this problem, in my humble. British killing sprees like Hungerford, Dunblane and Cumbria, the latter only last year) have two things in common, the degenerating frame of mind of the perpetrators over years, that could have been seen for what it was if anyone looked in the right places – and the rarity of such events.
Ok, just an addendum to the above; I really do rate Geoff’s point regarding target hardening and emergency planning. I will take part of these concepts and add one word, `drills`. Drills at the schools and colleges that are practised alongside fire drills, the aforementioned being most likely mandatory as they are in the UK. Drills, as all military folk know, can save lives. Drills when trained in the military, civilian parachute training (and police firearms tactical teams way) are intended to kick in when your unprepared mind is trying to get you to run on `auto` which basically means it gets you to run and/or hide.
Like many Lexicans, I was drilled in numerous SOP’s (standard operational procedures) or IA’s (immediate actions) to cover `man down`, `weapon stoppage`, `snagged rappelling gear`, `personal injury` and many other `what-if’s`. The luxury of being in a special team is that you get training time allocated to practice it so that if you get, for example, a weapon stoppage when you really don’t need one (and it’s bloody well ALWAYS when you really don’t need one), you can clear it and carry on firing in mere seconds, without even thinking about it. In my unit we actually designed in lots of stress before we started the specific training i.e. we got the adrenaline flowing hard before training in the response to the particular crisis because, as most of us know, if you train in comfort your stressed state will override that training in a real crisis.
I consulted with an old colleague of mine before replying to this. We joined The Metropolitan Police together (`Scotland Yard`, to those who are unfamiliar with our own policing structure – a force of around 32,000 officers ). He is now one of the UK’s experts on computer aided crime pattern analysis as well as being a former specialist in crime prevention/reduction, having worked for NATO in Kosovo as a trainer and adviser. But beneath all that is a very experienced police officer. I add his comments here:
Excellent article, well thought out and analysed. I got a bit worried when he said do nothing but that was clarified when he got to the bit about target hardening and drills. The later part in my opinion is more than just window dressing. yes it does go a long way to reduce fear and improve confidence which is the main outcome but it also has a huge impact on potential harm. Its the same scenario as a fire drill. Panic kills. Escape and evasion drills are really important so that everyone knows where to go, how to get there and what to do. The Columbine shooting identified that hiding under the desk and hoping that the bad guy dont see you was a tactical mistake. In my opinion the only really effective thing that stops a man with a gun is another man with a gun.
I particularly concur with his last sentence. If I wanted to wreak havoc upon my community in England I could do so within the current laws on the possession of firearms. I would be carrying a .22 rifle and a shotgun with plenty of 00 Buck and Triple A as well as pocketfuls of .22 long. I would be a formidable problem. And all handguns and automatic weapons, including multi shot rifles and shotguns (more than 3 round mags) are prohibited in the UK.
My pal and I are both former British police officers, both trained in firearms at an early stage in our service. I went on to tactical ops and ended up as head of firearms and public order training and operations in the force I transferred to (around 3,500 officers). We both acknowledge that we are `foreigners` amongst the majority of `Lexicans` and also acknowledge the vast gulf that exists between our respective nation’s laws on the possession of firearms and how they are a far greater part of your culture than ours, but one thing that binds us is `human nature`. I think it was an American President who coined the phrase, `we have nothing to fear but fear itself`. It’s time to think hard about identifying the real killers in your midst and harden your most vulnerable targets in as low key and sensibly thought through manner as you can. Do not create fear and then throw money and legislation at those fears, because you will further stir the whirlpool of irrational paranoia. Engender courage and then apply common sense (along with the money where it’s needed) at your perceived risk areas. Schools should be a haven of normality for children, even if what goes on outside doesn’t quite conform to everyone’s perception of that much misused word `normal`.
Don’t forget drills for the officers who must respond. I have taken part in school clearing drills, both where we know where the bad guy is, and when we are looking for him. Knowing the layout of the school is important, so if you arrive, and someone says., ” he’ s up in the chem lab “, you already know where the chem lab is, and how to get there. Figuring out whe most likely entry points are, is also important. I know of a high school, where if you enter in the main eneterance, you have a commons to the left, a gym to the front, and the offices to the right, you must climb a set of stairs to enter the class room areas. but if you go to the other end of the building, and enter from the parking lot, you enter the target rich classroom area immentiatly upon entering.
Drills and plans are important, and must be kept current, schools get built, torn down, and remodelled. Last year’s plan may not be this year’s plan. You must also plan for coordination with fire rescue, and ambulance services, so you can have staging areas for them. If possible nce every couple of years, run the drill in the school week, and practice evacuating, just like you do a couple of times a year for fire drills, and tornado drills. That way the students and teachers know what to do, and any potentail attackers among the student body will know that the school is a very hard target indeed. In our local school district, the School Resource Officer looks just like an adult Jerry Mathers, ( with the obvious nickname applied ),and we of the County Sheriff’s Office have gone to Tahoes, with the demise of the Crown Vic, as have the local departments. Let the potential nasties know that the have to get past the Beaver, the rest of the city officers, the Sate Patrol , who will also attend, as we are on the Interstate, and truckloads of angry Badgers.
Since this sort of event is a Mutual Aid event, it is important in small communities ( I live in a county 30X60 miles, with a population of only 27,000 ), to also take a trip to look through the schools of neighboring towns, and the rural schools as well, as you may have to go there someday, and haveing at least a vauge knowlege of the layout is very helpful.
None of this will prevent all the violence, how could it? But it will make a difference.
Hi Scott! Yes indeed. We all train together. When we had our national counter terrorist exercises everyone played, including Government ministers. Mrs Thatcher was particularly keen on getting her team out on the ground making real-time strategic decisions. Train hard, fight easy.
Lots of fine comments bracketing the problem. Of course the REAL reason that Obama et al are concentrating on “guns” like the drunk that has lost the car keys in the pitch dark back alley yet insists in looking for them under the corner streetlamp “because the light is so much better there” is because they are not up to the serious intellectual/political tussles that a hard look at the major independent variables would entail–Hollywood, TV, the music industry, game designers, “Big Farma” and prescription drugs, illegal drugs and cultural collapse, the MSM, academia, mental health issues–and the role they all play in our current cultural miasma–to include serious 1st amendment problems as well as HIPPA laws regarding medical records privacy. That’s one helluva Gordian Knot–the practical nuts & bolts of which are not amenable to either undoing quickly by Congress or of being solved in one fell swoop of massive “executive action.” Throw in the not-so-small fact that some of the biggest contributors to Obama’s campaigns have been Hollywood, Big Pharma and the entertainment industry in general and that two of those three are his ideological soulmates as well and one quickly sees why the left has tunnel vision-like target fixation on gun owners–especially as most of the latter (such as ourselves) are Obama’s political; enemies. Do not expect either logic or the facts to play ANY role in this current Administration’s thinking/actions about this subject. ANY actions taken will be guided strickly by political expediency in an attempt to gain favorable PR and cast Obama’s enemies in the worst light possible. We are dealing with a sociopathic facist here..
Geebus Chriminy! Add to that Mark Levin’s comment of he’s a serial liar!, which I remember from the first go-round, and I want to retch in utter disgust.
It’s so easy to blame Obama for the bastard he is, but I mostly blame Americans stupid enough to buy into his bullsh!t. I blame Hollywood and a media to stupid to realize just what sort of plague they’re bringing upon their home land.
Makes me wonder sometimes just what the hell they have against a country that has given them everything…a career, more money than they know what to do with, and an unfettered opportunity to influence people’s lives.
It’s good to see you around again, VX. Been too long, friend.
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