My own private Idaho

Posted by lex, on April 12, 2006

The seder was wonderful, thanks to those who offered up. Had to cut the Manischevitz short however, what with homework to do. Homework that I had, in the best traditions of the naval service, put off until the last possible moment.

Summat to do with my Engineering Risk Benefit Analysis course. How hard could it be?

Oh. Hard enough. For me.

Question: P(A)=0.42, P(B|A)=0.66, and P(B|notA)=0.25. Find the following: P(not A), P(not B|A), P(not B|not A), P(B), P(not B), P(A|B), P(not A|B), P(A|not B), P(not A|not B).

Clear as mud?

Or how about this:

Julie Myers, a graduating senior in accounting, is preparing for an interview with a big eight accounting firm. Before the interview, she sets her chances of eventually getting an offer at 50%. Then, on thinking about her friends who have interviewed and gotten offers from this firm, she realizes that of the people who received offers, 95% had good interviews. On the other hand, of those who did not receive offers, 75% said they had good interviews. If Julie Myers has a good interview, what are her chances of receiving an offer?

I’d have said, “95%.” The answer was 56%. Which was clearly in there somewhere.



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Filed under by lex, Carroll "Lex" LeFon, Carroll LeFon, Neptunus Lex

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